• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1810

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Oct 8 05:57:07 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 080557
    SPC MCD 080556=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1810
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1256 AM CDT Fri Oct 08 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central GA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 080556Z - 080730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A very isolated severe threat may exist with storms across
    central Georgia early this morning. Watch issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A marginal supercell has persisted early this morning
    across central GA per recent radar imagery from KJGX. The
    environment downstream of this storm appears only modestly favorable
    for continued storm organization over the next hour or two, with
    20-30 kt of deep-layer shear and weak instability present per latest mesoanalysis estimates. Even so, this storm has shown recent signs
    of broad, weak low/mid-level rotation. The VWP from KJGX indicates
    around 15 kt of 0-1-km shear exists, with slightly over 100 m2/s2 of
    0-1-km SRH also present. It remains unclear whether any additional,
    marginal supercells will develop with the convection trailing the
    leading storm given the weak large-scale forcing, and whether they
    would be able to sustain themselves for a prolonged period of time
    given the generally weak low-level winds present per the KJGX VWP.
    The leading, marginal supercell will probably have a tendency to
    weaken as it moves slowly eastward across central GA over the next
    couple of hours, as the boundary-layer instability gradually
    decreases with eastward extent while convective inhibition
    increases. Any severe hail/wind or perhaps brief tornado threat
    associated with this convection in the short term will likely remain
    very isolated, and watch issuance is not expected.

    ..Gleason/Edwards.. 10/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vHMGqYv25IvpJ6TIoZTDaO9978Lla9Wslrg9UKnLTsH9iZDjhDRP_brWfKSSwi6mF4p-Cuic$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 32018446 32328374 32598352 32678291 32618250 32308218
    32048232 31938281 31898336 31938401 32018446=20

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