• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1809

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 7 22:08:06 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 072208
    SPC MCD 072207=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1809
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0507 PM CDT Thu Oct 07 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of the Great Basin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 072207Z - 080000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible
    through this evening across portions of the Great Basin. Isolated
    instances of gusty winds and near-severe hail are the primary severe
    threats. The spotty nature of any severe threat will likely preclude
    a severe weather watch.

    DISCUSSION...Radar imagery over the past hour or so shows widely
    scattered and mostly poorly disorganized multicell thunderstorms
    across portions of the Great Basin as a mid-level shortwave trough
    approaches the area. The strongest storm during this time has been
    located over Cassia County in southern Idaho, where periodic updraft organization has allowed this thunderstorm to remain near severe
    limits (MRMS MESH near 1 inch). Occasional
    strengthening/organization of nearby/new thunderstorm updrafts are
    possible over the next several hours due to effective bulk shear
    near 40 knots and modest instability (e.g., MLCAPE near 500 J/kg) --
    best overlap over southern/southeastern Idaho. Isolated instances of
    marginally severe hail and gusty winds will be possible with the
    strongest storms through mid/late evening before instability weakens

    Overall, the spotty nature of any severe threat should preclude a
    severe weather watch.

    ..Elliott/Thompson.. 10/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!twdad-ASFpnMJI-WdpUo0hcYeM5EvxSgYVNgby1chhwnykh2y0Q601Xwv2qSbK4tIuRm0Gio$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41121610 41781565 42601456 43491205 43371062 43111016
    42440985 41741063 40911180 39841367 39931482 40261590
    40611638 41121610=20

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