• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1807

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 7 00:32:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 070031
    SPC MCD 070031=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1807
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0731 PM CDT Wed Oct 06 2021

    Areas affected...the Middle Tennessee vicinity...and southward into
    the northern half of Alabama and northwestern Georgia

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 513...

    Valid 070031Z - 070200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 513 continues.

    SUMMARY...Local risk for severe weather continues, with occasionally stronger/rotating storms.

    DISCUSSION...latest radar loop shows that earlier storms which
    locally had exhibited low-level rotation have diminished over the
    past 1 to 2 hours. However, area VWPs -- particularly across
    northern portions of the WW -- continue to suggest shear sufficient
    for brief/local increases in low-level rotation with any
    longer-lived storm.=20=20

    Overall, a very slow diminishing trend in risk for stronger storms
    is expected with time. However, with the upper low providing cool
    mid-level temperatures, and a boundary layer that is nearly
    saturated and thus not prone to appreciable diurnal cooling, minimal
    but sufficient CAPE will linger into the overnight hours in areas
    away from more widespread/ongoing precipitation. As such, a very
    limited/local severe risk will likely continue -- even beyond the
    scheduled 03Z expiration of WW 513. With that said, a new WW is not
    expected to be necessary at this time, though we will continue to
    monitor convective trends over the next couple of hours in/near the

    ..Goss.. 10/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sAOzr1ditWDvHOcGhC3olKZnfuHZWwvMzs3WvDMiGh8IblSUe3bq5xP8zq_0BJHid9_986o_$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 32668728 33818754 34698796 36688824 36528716 35698519
    33978491 33188496 32668728=20

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