• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1805

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 6 18:26:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 061826
    SPC MCD 061826=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1805
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0126 PM CDT Wed Oct 06 2021

    Areas affected...portions of AL...TN...and GA.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 061826Z - 062100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong/severe storms may pose a risk for damaging
    wind gusts and or a brief tornado this afternoon. Convective
    evolution remains uncertain given cloud cover and previous

    DISCUSSION...As of 1815 UTC, surface observations and WV imagery
    showed a vertically stacked low centered across northeastern
    Arkansas. To the east of this low, broad ascent was supporting
    several bands of convection from TN southward, into eastern AL and western/central GA. Partly to mostly cloudy skies with a few breaks
    are ongoing across much of AL and GA with the arrival of mid-level
    dry air east of the low. As surface temperatures warm into the upper
    70s and 80s F, weak-moderate buoyancy (750-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE)
    should develop given heating of the very moist airmass with surface
    dewpoints near 70 F. Southerly flow through much of the lower and
    middle troposphere will support deep veering wind profiles favorable
    for organized storms. Low-level backing of surface winds (0-1km srh
    of 50-75 m2/s2) is also present on VWP data from FCC where several
    small supercells have been noted. With favorable buoyancy and
    effective shear in place, a few weak supercells may have the
    potential to produce damaging wind gusts and or a brief tornado as
    they move to the north this afternoon.=20

    Uncertainty remains on the evolution of storms across GA given dense
    cloud cover and little surface forcing for ascent. Latest HRRR and
    other hi-res guidance suggests a cluster of strong storms may
    materialize out of the ongoing CU field and weak confluence across
    west-central GA and eastern AL. Weak low-level UH tracks align well
    with the potential for low-end supercells to track north and east
    into northern AL/GA and southern TN into this evening. While
    uncertainty remains, increasing storm coverage and favorable
    kinematics will likely support some severe threat this afternoon and
    early evening. Conditions will be monitored for a possible weather

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 10/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p3PnxYvBuT97OblGYHjweAeigbX4c3gkJKH6rrkZP4vZDzGGUfNpPRPR_7C4XBz2h2o7efng$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 35688569 35768643 35418689 34618696 34028660 33568603
    33138526 32808487 32608446 32628375 32798350 32958338
    33298342 33588353 33778382 34188403 34948444 35478502

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