• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1804

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 6 11:02:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 061102
    SPC MCD 061102=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1804
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0602 AM CDT Wed Oct 06 2021

    Areas affected...Western FL Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 061102Z - 061300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts and
    perhaps a tornado are possible across the western FL Panhandle over
    the next hour or two.

    DISCUSSION...Storm cluster off the coast of the western FL Panhandle
    has shown a strengthening trend over the past half hour or so with
    both echo tops and lightning activity increasing. This activity
    initially began to strengthen in proximity to the remnant boundary
    just offshore but has maintained it strength longer than previous
    cells this morning. Some of this maintenance is likely due to the
    vertically veering wind profile adding in updraft
    rotation/organization. Recent KEVX VAD wind profiles sampled 160-180
    m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity. This amount of vertical
    shear is ample for storm organization and perhaps even a tornado,
    despite relatively modest buoyancy overall. Limited area and
    duration of the threat will likely preclude the need for a watch but
    isolated instances of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief
    tornado are possible.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 10/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vH84tzASULkN9O-3MGoGZB8ACW5Bwxxx9KpOFTUHj1ys0GVg1sv8ycqmIoq5pz7OKrxqPkV3$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 30488641 30698626 30678572 30418544 30128552 29988578
    30158639 30488641=20

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