• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1803

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 6 00:51:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 060051
    SPC MCD 060051=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1803
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0751 PM CDT Tue Oct 05 2021

    Areas affected...portions of central Arizona.

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512...

    Valid 060051Z - 060145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512

    SUMMARY...Isolated supercells may pose a large hail/damaging wind
    threat through the evening.

    DISCUSSION...A supercell split in southwest Maricopa county with the
    left split now in northwest Maricopa county and the right mover
    approaching the south Phoenix/Tempe metro area. Sufficient airmass
    recovery has occurred in this area with MLCAPE around 500 to 1000
    J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis and the 00Z TUS RAOB. Enough residual
    instability should remain in the Phoenix metro area to sustain this
    supercell and an associated severe weather threat for the next 1 to
    2 hours before a cooling boundary layer and increasing inhibition
    should eventually result in storm weakening.

    ..Bentley.. 10/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pvdtzY8Z3TEh4FUS0pbLTtdgZX7zQ7IaRGJLNA0-XDu6ajMVlEZuPJ47QqpDyy0X4D6SJU2m$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 34051328 34401329 34361163 33431118 33011170 32911242
    32991285 33081310 33161314 34051328=20

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