Mesoscale Discussion 1803
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Tue Oct 05 2021
Areas affected...portions of central Arizona.
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512...
Valid 060051Z - 060145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512
SUMMARY...Isolated supercells may pose a large hail/damaging wind
threat through the evening.
DISCUSSION...A supercell split in southwest Maricopa county with the
left split now in northwest Maricopa county and the right mover
approaching the south Phoenix/Tempe metro area. Sufficient airmass
recovery has occurred in this area with MLCAPE around 500 to 1000
J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis and the 00Z TUS RAOB. Enough residual
instability should remain in the Phoenix metro area to sustain this
supercell and an associated severe weather threat for the next 1 to
2 hours before a cooling boundary layer and increasing inhibition
should eventually result in storm weakening.
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