• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1802

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 6 00:45:26 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 060045
    SPC MCD 060045=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1802
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0745 PM CDT Tue Oct 05 2021

    Areas affected...Far eastern Arizona and far western New Mexico

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 060045Z - 060215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to weaken through the evening into the
    early overnight. No downstream watch is expected.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered severe wind reports have continued to come in
    from the cluster of storms currently across eastern Arizona.
    Embedded supercells have been responsible for most of these severe
    wind gusts. These storms are moving to the eastern extent of the
    instability, and loss of daytime heating should continue to
    stabilize the airmass ahead of these storms. Therefore, weakening is
    expected. However, slightly longer persistence is possible with the
    embedded supercells where internal dynamic pressure perturbations
    are able to overcome increasing inhibition. However, the isolated
    and low-end threat from this activity should limit any need for a
    downstream watch.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 10/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rt_8m7ywBKuoQab6BGjN-laEueY8msnNfzsxCIKT7clqtgwM2IhOOPk0KLljqLRnwmpFy-Q0$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 35491007 35520925 34180824 32830839 32690908 32660948
    33991008 34601032 35491007=20

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