• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1800

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Oct 5 20:56:24 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 052056
    SPC MCD 052055=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1800
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0355 PM CDT Tue Oct 05 2021

    Areas affected...portions of Arizona and far southeast Nevada

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512...

    Valid 052055Z - 052230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512

    SUMMARY...Ongoing storms will continue to pose a risk for severe
    weather including damaging winds and large hail into this evening
    across WW512. A tornado is also possible, though uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2035 UTC, radar showed numerous strong
    thunderstorms ongoing across southern AZ and WW512. WV imagery shows
    the main upper low across southeast CA beginning to eject eastward
    into the southern Great Basin. Additional lift and maximum diurnal
    heating will help foster storm longevity and development this
    afternoon. Latest Hi-res guidance suggests several clusters of
    stronger storms are likely to evolve and move toward central Arizona
    over the next couple of hours. An increasing severe risk will likely
    accompany these storms as they move northeastward with time.
    Favorable buoyancy (1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE ) and bulk shear (40-50
    kt) will continue to support a risk for damaging winds and hail,
    with isolated instances of significant severe possible. Low-level
    shear remains somewhat unfavorable for tornadoes given regional VADS
    and the 18z PSR sounding. However, local terrain influences,
    especially near the near the Mogollon Rim, and some additional
    backing of surface flow from height falls aloft may support a brief
    tornado this evening.

    ..Lyons.. 10/05/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qRsxjndKYaeSyJXZqp9HDHIVIGdcyeDr5KOiQ95-PhZsnvLBfRwbzoh8e3SDWqZSHy4y-HrC$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 32241340 32421445 32511459 36031461 36211417 36991405
    36991050 36991000 36991000 32480924 32411313 32241340=20

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