Mesoscale Discussion 1800
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Tue Oct 05 2021
Areas affected...portions of Arizona and far southeast Nevada
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512...
Valid 052055Z - 052230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512
SUMMARY...Ongoing storms will continue to pose a risk for severe
weather including damaging winds and large hail into this evening
across WW512. A tornado is also possible, though uncertain.
DISCUSSION...As of 2035 UTC, radar showed numerous strong
thunderstorms ongoing across southern AZ and WW512. WV imagery shows
the main upper low across southeast CA beginning to eject eastward
into the southern Great Basin. Additional lift and maximum diurnal
heating will help foster storm longevity and development this
afternoon. Latest Hi-res guidance suggests several clusters of
stronger storms are likely to evolve and move toward central Arizona
over the next couple of hours. An increasing severe risk will likely
accompany these storms as they move northeastward with time.
Favorable buoyancy (1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE ) and bulk shear (40-50
kt) will continue to support a risk for damaging winds and hail,
with isolated instances of significant severe possible. Low-level
shear remains somewhat unfavorable for tornadoes given regional VADS
and the 18z PSR sounding. However, local terrain influences,
especially near the near the Mogollon Rim, and some additional
backing of surface flow from height falls aloft may support a brief
tornado this evening.
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