• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1798

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Oct 5 17:46:24 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 051746
    SPC MCD 051745=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1798
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 05 2021

    Areas affected...portions of Alabama...Mississippi and Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 051745Z - 051945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon in
    proximity to a weak upper low and stationary front across the
    Southeast. Cool temperatures aloft will favor the potential for
    small hail with the strongest storms. A weather watch is unlikely
    though conditions will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Afternoon WV imagery showed a weak upper low centered
    near the AR, MS, LA border. Within a zone of broad ascent to the
    east of the low and a diffuse surface front, visible imagery and
    radar showed a cu field and a few weak thunderstorms developing
    across MS and AL. Continued weak ascent and diurnal warming will
    remove the already limited inhibition in place and support scattered thunderstorm development in the next couple of hours. Seasonably
    warm and moist conditions along with steep mid-level lapse rates
    near the cold core aloft will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE this
    afternoon. Lingering mid-level flow wrapped around the eastern half
    of the upper low will provide adequate deep-layer shear(25-30 kt)
    for organized multicells/clusters.

    Latest hi-res guidance depicts scattered storms, with several storm
    clusters, moving west/northwest around the upper low across far
    western AL, southern TN and much of MS into this evening. Given the
    favorable thermodynamics (500 mb temps near -15C), strong updrafts
    will likely be capable of marginally severe hail and perhaps a
    strong wind gust given the potential for storm clusters and merging
    outflow. Some uncertainty remains on the expected severe coverage
    given lower-end deep-layer shear and subtle forcing. This suggests
    severe potential will remain mostly isolated and outside the need of
    a weather watch.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 10/05/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p37_RCDKwTaILUnoqgGQzsy7FeUqiKpI4SL-105KKwQLg2A2EHQnbB6Wr970O8PsDG9KQAuP$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 31698933 32279033 33049082 33879092 34429061 35029008
    35408960 35498927 35388882 35158859 34788847 34018817
    33458820 32788820 32418824 32098840 31728887 31698933=20

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