• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1797

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Oct 4 20:44:49 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 042044
    SPC MCD 042044=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1797
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0344 PM CDT Mon Oct 04 2021

    Areas affected...portions of the Mid Atlantic

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 042044Z - 042245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms near the stationary front may
    pose an isolated risk for strong/damaging outflow winds this
    afternoon and evening. Expected storm coverage should be limited
    suggesting a watch is not needed.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2030 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
    showed isolated thunderstorms developing along the eastern crest of
    the Blue Ridge Mountains in western VA and eastern WV. Aided by weak
    low-level convergence south of a stalled front and along a surface
    pressure trough, these storms are ongoing in a warm, and weak to
    moderately unstable environment. SPC mesoanalysis shows 1000-1500
    J/kg of MLCAPE has developed, which should continue to support
    updrafts as they track northeastward across portions of the Mid
    Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Observed vertical shear remains
    weak, with 20-25 kts of 0-6km shear from local VADs. This should
    result in loosely organized multicells/clusters, with the potential
    for strong outflow winds into this evening.=20

    Latest hi-res guidance and observational trends suggest the ongoing
    storms will likely continue northeastward with time into northern
    VA, MD and southern PA. Clearing ahead of the convection suggests
    potential for storms to linger into the evening. Thus, a low-end
    risk for a few damaging wind gusts may exist across portions of he
    Mid Atlantic with any stronger storms/weakly organized storm
    clusters. Uncertainty on the nature of the severe threat and limited
    storm coverage suggests a weather watch is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 10/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rfp9i2heXEHVye6lNSzdNXmEJ3M-_pv_aIUFrKhMN7zOlJL00COr96fQl8J0r9j9dUVQNgw6$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38337833 39297815 40327614 40407499 39787426 39197458
    38877538 38597635 38307716 38187750 38337833=20

    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1633380527-91550-7076--

    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)