• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1796

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Oct 2 18:51:07 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 021851
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021850=20
    MOZ000-ARZ000-022115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1796
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0150 PM CDT Sat Oct 02 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of western/central AR and southern MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 021850Z - 022115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat, with both gusty winds and hail
    possible, should continue through the rest of the afternoon. Watch
    issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have gradually increased in coverage across
    parts of southwestern MO and western AR early this afternoon. This
    activity is occurring on the southern flank on a MCV over western
    MO, and is being aided by modest lift associated with a
    low-amplitude shortwave trough moving slowly eastward from the
    southern/central Plains across the Ozarks. Filtered diurnal heating
    of a moist low-level airmass across much of AR/MO has allowed for
    weak instability to develop, with up to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE present
    per mesoanalysis estimates. Although low-level flow remains rather
    modest, some strengthening of southwesterly winds is present at mid
    levels owing to the presence of the shortwave trough. Around 30-35
    kt of flow has been estimated above 5 km AGL by recent VWPs from
    KSRX and KSGF. Similar values of deep-layer shear may prove
    sufficient for updraft organization, with multicells probably
    becoming the dominant storm mode with time this afternoon.
    Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the strongest
    cells as they move east-northeastward. Cool mid-level temperatures
    may also aid marginally severe hail with any supercell that can
    develop, but the lack of stronger deep-layer shear suggests the
    supercell threat will likely be short lived. The overall severe
    threat should remain rather isolated/marginal this afternoon, and
    watch issuance is not expected at this time.

    ..Gleason/Guyer.. 10/02/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vwd4B_zA5lNKQaFX0wFFOQ75x6UT9IYrcJQADiMPJIkbnvssegsOIXIbXHaY4IJX6FN_rbe-$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

    LAT...LON 35599444 36249384 36569336 37009330 37599342 37909325
    38199245 38069179 37389131 36639138 35519183 35039278
    34869362 34889438 35279440 35599444=20



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