• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1795

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Oct 1 22:13:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 012212
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012212=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-012345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1795
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0512 PM CDT Fri Oct 01 2021

    Areas affected...Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 012212Z - 012345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated storms may continue to pose a risk for severe
    hail for a few more hours this evening, however, watch issuance is
    unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a few isolated storms have
    developed over parts of southeast New Mexico, with MESH core values
    approaching 1-1.5 inches in the strongest cells. This activity is
    occurring along the western periphery of a weak instability axis,
    characterized by MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, which is collocated beneath a
    closed upper-level low coincident with cool mid-level temperatures
    (-15 C at 500 mb) and modest deep-layer shear (35-40 kt effective
    bulk shear). This environment should continue to favor robust yet
    somewhat transient updrafts capable of producing severe hail for a
    few more hours this evening before gradually diminishing with the
    loss of surface heating. Given the isolated nature of the threat,
    watch issuance is unlikely for the region.

    ..Karstens/Hart.. 10/01/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!thdvIxM8jBDH6YgznSb8GoJlryORtuYuNY-BhpZkyB9gpuXtVLMcI2IJ4M-CJU10w9n6N5F6$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 29740330 30460423 32010474 33580459 34730396 35170283
    34120220 32040203 30450232 29740330=20



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