• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1794

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 30 23:08:28 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 302308
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302308=20
    TXZ000-010115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1794
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0608 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of southwestern Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511...

    Valid 302308Z - 010115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511
    continues.

    SUMMARY...At least an isolated threat of large hail and damaging
    winds gusts will remain possible across portions of Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 511 for the next few hours. Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 511 might need to be canceled prior to the 0200Z expiration if
    overall weakening trends continue.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations from 23Z show a cold front
    moving southward through the Transpecos region of southwest Texas,
    with widely scattered thunderstorms near/along the front. Radar
    imagery over the past hour or so suggests storm intensities have
    likely already peaked -- due in part to the best upper-level support
    beginning to move away from the area and diminishing instability
    with messy storm coverage. Nevertheless, RAP mesoanaylysis suggests
    pockets of MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg amidst effective bulk shear
    values of 30-40 knots, which will continue to support at least an
    isolated threat for damaging wind gusts and large hail with the
    strongest storms -- especially along/south of I-10. Another area of thunderstorms has recently moved east of the Watch across portions
    of North Central Texas (with a few MESH cores exceeding 1 inch).
    While the environment east of the watch becomes less favorable
    (weaker shear and instability) for severe thunderstorms rather
    quickly, brief intensification may allow for localized large
    hail/damaging wind gusts.=20

    High-resolution guidance suggests thunderstorm intensities should
    continue to wane over the next few hours as instability weakens
    further and upper-level support continues to pull away from the
    area. While Severe Thunderstorm Watch #511 currently expires at
    0200Z, it may need to be canceled earlier if storm intensity trends
    continue to decrease.

    ..Elliott.. 09/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pNOjnuPQgewfr2Mpms3XheaZ6LHndmK5q0f5BFRWMGfo3taV15i-yz5aFbsaWVEMnsavHDey$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29110297 29450319 30680277 31590159 31650046 31420022
    29750175 29110297=20



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