Mesoscale Discussion 1793
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021
Areas affected...Parts of southwestern Texas into parts of the Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511...
Valid 302001Z - 302200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511
SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms will continue to develop
through 4-6 PM CDT, posing a risk for large hail, particularly
across areas south through east of Fort Stockton.
DISCUSSION...The surface cold front has advanced southward into the
the Pecos Valley and through much of the Texas South Plains, with
widely scattered strong thunderstorm development ongoing along it
and across the higher terrain of southwestern Texas. A further
increase in coverage of storms appears probable through 21-23Z,
supported by peak late afternoon boundary-layer instability.
Latest Rapid Refresh output suggests that there has been sufficient strengthening of southwesterly mid/upper flow across the northern
Mexican Plateau into southwest Texas to contribute to moderate to
strong deep-layer shear across and southeast through east of the
Davis Mountains vicinity. One or two sustained supercells may
develop across this region, posing the most prominent risk for large
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