• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1793

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 30 20:02:26 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 302002
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302001=20
    TXZ000-302200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1793
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0301 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southwestern Texas into parts of the Texas
    South Plains

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511...

    Valid 302001Z - 302200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms will continue to develop
    through 4-6 PM CDT, posing a risk for large hail, particularly
    across areas south through east of Fort Stockton.

    DISCUSSION...The surface cold front has advanced southward into the
    the Pecos Valley and through much of the Texas South Plains, with
    widely scattered strong thunderstorm development ongoing along it
    and across the higher terrain of southwestern Texas. A further
    increase in coverage of storms appears probable through 21-23Z,
    supported by peak late afternoon boundary-layer instability.

    Latest Rapid Refresh output suggests that there has been sufficient strengthening of southwesterly mid/upper flow across the northern
    Mexican Plateau into southwest Texas to contribute to moderate to
    strong deep-layer shear across and southeast through east of the
    Davis Mountains vicinity. One or two sustained supercells may
    develop across this region, posing the most prominent risk for large
    hail.

    ..Kerr.. 09/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r0sm7QSGPI_m00eivlToDjy9iGs4WzTkhiUdCisweaFJiNfC9wvquZprhPEaxHTnZNDnvg77$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 30700289 31260238 31660193 32050137 32470036 32089924
    30330157 29640298 29430394 30370463 30900528 31610512
    31660424 30730378 30700289=20



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