• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1792

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 30 15:39:27 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 301539
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301538=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-301815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1792
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1038 AM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southwestern Texas and adjacent portions
    of New Mexico into parts of the Texas South Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 301538Z - 301815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing strong thunderstorm development is possible
    across the mountains of southwest Texas, and perhaps
    east-northeastward into the I-20 corridor of the Texas South Plains,
    as early as 1-3 PM CDT. Before activity becomes increasingly
    widespread, stronger storms may pose a risk for large hail, with
    some potential for locally strong surface gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Within broad but weak mid-level troughing across the
    Intermountain West into Great Plains, a smaller-scale impulse is now
    in the process of pivoting eastward/northeastward into the southern
    Rockies. As this continues, weak near-surface/low-level wind fields
    will continue to back to the southeast, ahead of a cold front
    advancing toward the Interstate 20 corridor of the Texas South
    Plains. It appears that this will contribute to further westward
    advection of low-level moisture (including surface dew points as
    high as mid 60s F+), and some increase of generally weak current
    shear beneath 20-40+ kt southwesterly flow in the 500-300 mb layer.=20
    In the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, mixed-layer
    CAPE is forecast to increase in excess of 2000 J/kg during the next
    few hours.

    As inhibition weakens with large-scale ascent aided by increasingly
    divergent high-level flow, as well as additional surface heating, it
    appears that boundary-layer based thunderstorms may begin initiating
    by early afternoon across the mountains of southwest Texas, and
    perhaps east-northeastward along the front, near/north of Odessa,
    Midland and Big Spring. As this occurs, before storms become
    increasingly widespread, the environment probably will become
    conducive to large hail in the stronger cells.

    ..Kerr.. 09/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tQU64HEypbye9A-QrGtyGct4RqsAHiqsMz6V-aLaInkRy2AW4a1hyJeKuDrRLn9uBgrYnU1m$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 29690431 30780495 31290506 31580476 31870451 31890360
    32230289 32960044 32139943 31190201 30150221 29180211
    28770314 29690431=20



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