• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1791

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 29 20:14:24 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 292014
    SPC MCD 292013=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1791
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0313 PM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of northwest Texas into the Edwards Plateau

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 292013Z - 292215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few storms capable of producing marginally severe hail
    and locally strong wind gusts are possible into the 5-7 PM CDT time

    DISCUSSION...With strong daytime heating and deep boundary-layer
    mixing to its west, the dryline has sharpened, roughly west of
    Wichita Falls southward toward Junction. Mixed-layer CAPE is
    maximizing (on the order of 2000 J/kg) in a narrow corridor along
    and to its east, with the initiation of scattered thunderstorm
    development ongoing, ahead of weak lower/mid tropospheric troughing.
    Deep-layer mean flow and shear are generally weak, but veering with
    height might still be sufficient to support occasional isolated
    supercell structures with the potential to produce severe hail.=20=20

    Sustained storms may tend to slowly advect east of the dryline, but
    they are expected to weaken with inflow of less unstable air.=20
    However, the dryline probably will remain the focus for renewed
    vigorous thunderstorm development into early evening, before the
    boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating.

    ..Kerr/Thompson.. 09/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vG_i2T4A61rDITuPXWI1Gvcy02wwZEcq3wL4rPF_XjOX5pLc81ZESkCxMLrTqO5XNxRm7UAt$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 31669958 32229950 33079891 33959883 33989816 33099785
    31139912 31189973 31669958=20

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