Mesoscale Discussion 1790
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021
Areas affected...a small of part of the middle Texas Coast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 290706Z - 290930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A small window exists for a weak supercell or two along a
boundary extending southeast from an MCS to the middle Texas Coast.
DISCUSSION...A quasi-stationary front currently stretches from the
Gulf of Mexico across Aransas, Calhoun, Refugio, and Goliad
counties. A slow-moving supercell has persisted for quite some time
just offshore, with weak to sometimes moderate rotation.
Quickly approaching the region is an MCS with outflow, now
approaching northern Goliad and Victoria counties. However, small
cells along the stationary front preceding the MCS have recently
shown rotation as well.
If convective trends continue to increase in this small area, a
brief/weak tornado could not be ruled out. Any threat would be tied
to the stationary boundary, with threat ending once outflow
undercuts from the northwest. Effective SRH values of only 100-150
and weak winds aloft suggest minimal overall severe risk.
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