• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1790

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 29 07:07:21 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 290707
    SPC MCD 290706=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1790
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0206 AM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021

    Areas affected...a small of part of the middle Texas Coast

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 290706Z - 290930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A small window exists for a weak supercell or two along a
    boundary extending southeast from an MCS to the middle Texas Coast.

    DISCUSSION...A quasi-stationary front currently stretches from the
    Gulf of Mexico across Aransas, Calhoun, Refugio, and Goliad
    counties. A slow-moving supercell has persisted for quite some time
    just offshore, with weak to sometimes moderate rotation.

    Quickly approaching the region is an MCS with outflow, now
    approaching northern Goliad and Victoria counties. However, small
    cells along the stationary front preceding the MCS have recently
    shown rotation as well.

    If convective trends continue to increase in this small area, a
    brief/weak tornado could not be ruled out. Any threat would be tied
    to the stationary boundary, with threat ending once outflow
    undercuts from the northwest. Effective SRH values of only 100-150
    and weak winds aloft suggest minimal overall severe risk.

    ..Jewell/Edwards.. 09/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pnrSk8uep9XfnuwacKKBiU1f1RVDLHSadX93pqkao8_ISOxrgZnaRDKnM6F1Zee71AvaPC9l$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 28469730 28649733 28929740 28949723 29059689 28829667
    28519640 28349631 28189659 28289690 28469730=20

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