• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1788

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 28 20:22:18 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 282022
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282021=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-282145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1788
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0321 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

    Areas affected...A large portions of Texas and far southwest
    Oklahoma.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 282021Z - 282145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are possible
    this afternoon into the evening.

    DISCUSSION...A broad area of thunderstorms has developed across much
    of central Texas to near the Red River. These storms have lacked any
    real organization and no severe reports or warnings have been
    received/issued thus far. VWPs across most of Texas show a very weak
    wind profile in the lowest 6 km which explains the lack of storm
    organization. Therefore, while an isolated severe report is possible
    in this region due strong instability with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE,
    the lack of shear should keep most storms below severe limits.

    Farther southwest, there may be a better chance for a few reports of
    large hail and/or severe winds across southwest Texas. Slightly
    stronger mid-level flow has overspread this region (30-35 kts per
    KSJT VWP) which has led to increased shear around 25 to 30 kts.
    Therefore, storms which move off the higher terrain in Mexico and
    cross into Texas, or any additional development in the region, will
    have a better chance for organization than the storm activity
    farther northeast and thus a better chance for an isolated severe
    threat.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 09/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vFv0yRV0bUM_BiWltJsAuFyZrTlV5OU7NBOum-B1dHo8r7qVevcDMdWcTaTsiSQGHkBtzsqc$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29810231 30190183 30760099 31250071 32240104 32880126
    35070002 35049923 34269735 32939629 31589662 29969798
    28660057 29430123 29680188 29810231=20



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