• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1786

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Sep 27 20:13:06 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 272013
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272012=20
    TXZ000-272145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1786
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0312 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021

    Areas affected...portions of the Trans Pecos

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 272012Z - 272145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are starting to develop. These storms may pose a
    threat for isolated large hail and severe winds.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have started to develop in a confluence zone
    within the Trans Pecos with low-level convergence greatest west of
    Fort Stockton where terrain circulations are maximized. Instability
    is currently somewhat limited with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg per SPC
    mesoanalysis. However, temperatures are expected to warm further in
    the area with greater instability developing through the afternoon
    and into the evening. As instability increases, storm intensity is
    also expected to increase.

    SPC mesoanalysis shows effective shear around 35 knots in the region
    with very straight hodographs. This should support storm
    organization including the potential for splitting supercells.
    Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are possible with these
    storms, but the limited instability and somewhat isolated nature of
    the threat will likely preclude the need for a watch.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 09/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pf3Q19jORayBDa0CYw4PwTff1TSVTvpDsRc_9OHenDXFIdQxly0Xr8KWul8xvGZan7Ff8xxr$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 30300480 30970344 30950192 30600159 29840271 29520443
    29760468 30300480=20



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