Mesoscale Discussion 1786
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021
Areas affected...portions of the Trans Pecos
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 272012Z - 272145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are starting to develop. These storms may pose a
threat for isolated large hail and severe winds.
DISCUSSION...Storms have started to develop in a confluence zone
within the Trans Pecos with low-level convergence greatest west of
Fort Stockton where terrain circulations are maximized. Instability
is currently somewhat limited with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg per SPC
mesoanalysis. However, temperatures are expected to warm further in
the area with greater instability developing through the afternoon
and into the evening. As instability increases, storm intensity is
also expected to increase.
SPC mesoanalysis shows effective shear around 35 knots in the region
with very straight hodographs. This should support storm
organization including the potential for splitting supercells.
Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are possible with these
storms, but the limited instability and somewhat isolated nature of
the threat will likely preclude the need for a watch.
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