• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1785

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Sep 26 21:39:30 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 262139
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262139=20
    NMZ000-TXZ000-AZZ000-262315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1785
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0439 PM CDT Sun Sep 26 2021

    Areas affected...portions of southeastern Arizona and southwest New
    Mexico

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 262139Z - 262315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms across Arizona and New Mexico are
    expected to continue this afternoon and evening. Recent radar trends
    suggest some strengthening over the last hour with an increasing
    risk for a few instances of damaging winds or hail with the
    strongest storms. Given the relatively limited threat, a weather
    watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2115 UTC, radar and satellite imagery showed
    scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing across portions of
    southern Arizona and western New Mexico. Associated with a weak
    upper low moving out of the Gulf of California, these storms are
    ongoing in a moderately unstable environment with around 1000 J/kg
    of MLCAPE from SPC mesoanalysis. As lift from the trough and a 35 kt
    mid-level jet streak continues to impinge on the monsoonal moisture
    in place, continuation of the current storms and some additional
    development appears likely. Deep-layer shear profiles are weak to
    moderate (30-40 kts), but should continue to support a few organized
    multicell clusters or weak supercells as mid-level southwesterlies
    increase ahead of the jet. Given relatively steep lapse rates of 7
    C/km in the low to mid levels, a few instances of damaging outflow
    winds and severe hail appear likely into this evening.=20

    Latest model guidance and observational trends suggest peak severe
    coverage will likely be reached over the next hour or two as ongoing
    storms move through the area of maximum solar heating and favorable boundary-layer moisture near the Arizona New Mexico border. As
    convection shifts slowly to the east with time, a drier airmass and
    increasing nocturnal inhibition should begin to diminish the severe
    threat later this evening. Given the relatively narrow window and
    expected isolated severe coverage, a weather watch appears
    unnecessary.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 09/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oMYvNvNVRyPuqJ1f--A0qUwFm7bXulT1wZT3D_D8z9KgMCQnPuWTLRW95ZRdkFQsLTBet5mq$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...

    LAT...LON 31130806 31180969 31561027 32060992 32810939 33300914
    33920882 34660818 35060742 34980646 33780615 32640628
    31810666 31630704 31670809 31130806=20



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