• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1784

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Sep 24 22:30:51 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 242230
    SPC MCD 242230=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1784
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0530 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021

    Areas affected...portions of southern California

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 242230Z - 250000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms across far southern California may
    pose an isolated severe risk for damaging gusts or small hail into
    this evening. Storm coverage and intensity are not expected to be
    great enough for a watch.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2220 UTC, scattered thunderstorms were observed
    across far southern California in the vicinity of San Diego.
    Enhanced by steeper lapse rates from cold temperatures aloft beneath
    a weak upper low centered over the eastern Pacific, weak to moderate
    buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE) should continue to support
    convection this afternoon and into the early evening. Easterly flow
    along the southern half of the upper low is weak, supporting only
    modest deep-layer shear profiles below 25 kts. The combination of
    marginal buoyancy and shear will continue to favor poorly organized
    multicell storms. The lack of broader scale forcing and limited
    shear should limit overall convective organization of these storms
    to occasional bouts of damaging outflow winds and or small hail.
    Storms should gradually weaken with westward extent as they
    encounter a cooler and more stable boundary layer near the Pacific
    coast. Given the limited storm coverage and spatial extent, a watch
    is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 09/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sYWkxSJixeJ_Eqi91vussdFuyG_o54sGKZlipXD0aQYFThUt2Q0mjP_xIpn7sReFwefFiSZz$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 32531654 32471705 32581719 32911723 33271742 33641731
    33861698 33381652 33041634 32821631 32611626 32531654=20

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