• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1783

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 23 17:30:11 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 231730
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231729=20
    NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-231830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1783
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1229 PM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of New Jersey...far eastern
    Pennsylvania...and far southeast New York.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 231729Z - 231830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible through the
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A line of storms has developed across southern New
    Jersey/eastern Pennsylvania in a narrow axis of instability ahead of
    a cold front. Occasional damaging wind reports have been received
    from this activity, but most measured wind gusts along the line are
    in the 30 to 40 mph range. Do not expect winds to be much stronger
    given the downstream environment with weak lapse rates and limited
    instability with cloud cover likely keeping it that way. Therefore,
    isolated damaging wind gusts may continue through the afternoon, but
    a more organized threat which may necessitate a severe thunderstorm
    watch does not appear necessary.

    ..Bentley/Bunting.. 09/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uTHbATwjBJCsLCXcD0fdM5eQy8zt7HqGxAKY-oI4cgbPRhqt69JhgxC5kiNEzWn_v3-xMmhg$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...

    LAT...LON 40827532 41417473 41387366 41037325 40777327 40567352
    40377395 39647404 39197444 38987473 38977513 39247534
    40827532=20



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