• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1780

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 23 01:05:45 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 230105
    SPC MCD 230104=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1780
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0804 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021

    Areas affected...South-central North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 230104Z - 230200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Sporadic strong to severe winds are possible with an
    organizing line of storms. However, this threat should remain
    limited spatially and temporally. A watch is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Latest reflectivity and velocity data from KRAX show a
    line of storms across south-central NC beginning to show some signs
    of organization, including a broad book-end vortex developing on the
    northern end of the line. This hint at intensification is
    corroborated by a recent uptick in lightning activity and cooling
    cloud tops in GOES IR imagery. Although deep-layer shear is modest
    (at around 20-30 knots), it is aligned roughly orthogonal to the
    developing line, which will aid in organization. Decaying convection
    downstream across central NC produced a 60 mph wind report at KSCR
    within the past hour, so despite diurnal cooling, the thermodynamic
    environment appears supportive of strong to severe winds given a
    sufficiently strong downdraft. As such, sporadic strong to severe
    winds may accompany this line in the near term. The duration of this
    threat is uncertain, but given steady stabilizing trends the
    probability for a prolonged threat appears low.

    ..Moore/Grams.. 09/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rxsEua0ujU0hoW4rTAy5asmFGdXRKmQkWolDd0o6KcoRu_HW6g-IxA-D02yUQqxiuMhyDz-8$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 35108017 35367990 35657958 35577894 35297864 35017877
    34697908 34457949 34387984 34428011 34768005 35108017=20

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