• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1778

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 22 22:14:08 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 222214
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222213=20
    PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-222345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1778
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0513 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021

    Areas affected...Western PA...Extreme Western NY

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 510...

    Valid 222213Z - 222345Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 510 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe threat is advancing downstream across western PA
    into extreme western NY. Primary threat for damaging winds, along
    with a tornado to two, will be over the next 1-2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...Well-defined squall line has evolved over western PA
    ahead of a strong short-wave trough that is ejecting across the OH
    Valley. Partial heating has contributed to a narrow corridor of
    instability that currently extends across western PA. Squall line
    will surge past this buoyancy axis over the next 1-2 hours and
    should begin to entrain cooler air which should lead to gradual
    weakening. However, latest radar imagery depicts a well-defined MCV
    over southeast Mercer County PA, lifting north-northeast toward the
    western counties of NY. Embedded circulations are noted along the
    squall line, immediately ahead of this feature. There is some
    concern this activity could remain severe for the next 50-70 miles
    which would be just beyond the edge of the current watch. Given the
    poor air mass downstream, and the limited area where severe appears
    possible, current thinking is a new watch may not be warranted.

    ..Darrow.. 09/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rjHZlK6z89pKEckWf7hFWiLodLnMJxg9QIu00Lmn43NkJjgT3251Rlg4hW5uiMCFQXNHV1sW$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

    LAT...LON 39817947 40847986 41808064 42488006 42277902 40517873
    39817947=20



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