• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1779

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 22 22:15:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 222215
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222214=20
    MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-230015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1779
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0514 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021

    Areas affected...Delmarva region

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 222214Z - 230015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Sporadic wind damage is possible over the next couple of
    hours as storm segments move across far eastern Virginia, central
    Maryland, and Delaware. This threat will remain isolated in nature,
    and a watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A few wind damage reports have been noted over the past
    hour associated with a short line segment moving through the
    Washington D.C. area. Despite a modest shear environment, VWP
    observations from KLWX show 40-45 knot winds within the lowest 1 km.
    Convective downdrafts mixing this stronger flow downward is likely
    responsible for the wind damage reports. This flow regime will
    persist for the near-term, and a combination of modest bulk shear
    oriented orthogonal to the line and sufficient downstream
    instability (approximately 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) should support
    storm maintenance for the next 1-2 hours. As such, additional
    sporadic wind damage will continue to be possible with this line, as
    well as with a developing cluster of storms across south-central MD.
    This threat will remain localized in nature, so no watch is
    expected.

    ..Moore/Grams.. 09/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r-svrUeDFglcmMPqg3Ntaxeo0cX_HPZ7Z0CuzG21vNoh5vBbv8Mk9FHQV5LItmstcQKezvz2$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 37707675 38537696 38997702 39427682 39777650 39767596
    39387554 38937535 38577532 38107561 37797593 37517627
    37467650 37707675=20



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