• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1782

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 23 14:31:14 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 231431
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231430=20
    NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-231630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1782
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0930 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of the Delmarva Peninsula into
    southeastern PA and NJ

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 231430Z - 231630Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Sporadic strong to damaging wind gusts may continue
    through the early afternoon. Watch issuance remains unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...A north-south oriented band of storms should continue
    to make slow eastward progress across the Delmarva Peninsula over
    the next couple of hours. This activity is occurring along a surface
    cold front, with a moist low-level airmass present to its east. As
    filtered diurnal heating occurs through the remainder of the
    morning, the boundary layer should gradually destabilize, with
    around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE eventually developing. Even so,
    multiple limiting factors remain apparent, including poor mid-level
    lapse rates tempering updraft strength, stronger deep-layer shear
    likely remaining confined to the cool side of the surface front, and
    nearly meridional flow above 1 km AGL limiting opportunity for the
    band of storms to develop eastward more quickly.

    Recent inland observations across eastern MD show that gusty outflow
    winds within the band have remained generally below 40 mph. While
    sporadic strong to damaging wind gusts may still occur as the line
    continues to advance slowly eastward, this threat should remain
    quite isolated/marginal. Finally, there is some low-level shear
    present ahead of the line from far eastern MD into DE and
    southeastern PA/western NJ. Recent VWPs from KDOX and KDIX show
    around 25-30 kt of 0-1 km shear, with about 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km
    SRH also present. Even with the less than favorable orientation of
    the line, an embedded low-level circulation capable of producing a
    brief tornado appears possible. Regardless, the overall severe
    threat is expected to remain rather marginal owing the previously
    mentioned limiting factors, and watch issuance is unlikely at this
    time.

    ..Gleason/Hart.. 09/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qNeHXzXF-8MB4UoTmPIu47JiaIkb6nI2FxN1WIyntz1FNLRspQtHbuSseB7nmbNydIonBbFL$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 38387589 38737592 39577616 40177615 40697590 40967569
    40907512 40167470 39537477 38937497 38557521 38307546
    38387589=20



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