• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1781

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 23 07:14:11 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 230714
    SPC MCD 230713=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1781
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0213 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021

    Areas affected...eastern Virginia to the Delmarva...southeast

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 230713Z - 231215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Convection along a cold front could yield isolated severe
    over the next several hours, but chances appear too low for any
    watch consideration. A brief/weak tornado or strong wind gusts would
    be primary concerns.

    DISCUSSION...Weak convection persists along a cold front, with
    sporadic lightning noted from southern PA across VA and into
    northeast NC. A warm, moist air mass remains ahead of the
    slow-moving front, with 70s F dewpoints contributing to 500-1000
    J/kg MUCAPE.

    VWP observations as well as model-derived soundings show favorable
    low-level shear ahead of the front where surface winds are backed,
    with effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. Otherwise, winds aloft remain
    nearly unidirectional out of the south/southwest, limiting effective

    Little if any destabilization is anticipated due to theta-e
    advection, and lift along the front will remain rather steady state
    as it moves slowly eastward. Convective elements that can maximize
    residence time along the front may exhibit rotation at times, with
    any wind or weak tornado threat likely short lived/localized.

    ..Jewell/Edwards.. 09/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rFsTFYA7G8NgRV7J5415neoyJkQ4Y0spSgBxuX8Z5VTE34cg-VnAy1Dehkvx-n6l9CcdthhB$=
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    LAT...LON 37297585 37097633 37067707 37207746 37387758 37847748
    39047743 39717747 40427741 40757695 40757645 40597595
    40177558 39417547 38357558 37297585=20

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