Mesoscale Discussion 1777
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021
Areas affected...Portions of eastern OH...western PA...and northern
Concerning...Tornado Watch 510...
Valid 222008Z - 222145Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 510 continues.
SUMMARY...Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will
remain possible through the rest of the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms has formed this afternoon
across eastern OH and northern WV along and just ahead of a cold
front. The environment downstream of this convection into western PA
will remain favorable for organized severe storms, with MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg and around 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear present per
latest mesoanalysis estimates. Scattered damaging winds will
probably be the main threat with these mostly linear storms as they
move generally northeastward through the rest of the afternoon.
There still remains a chance for a couple tornadoes, as 0-1 km SRH
around 150 m2/s2 is present based on recent VWPs from KPBZ and
surface winds remain backed to southeasterly across western PA.
These tornadoes may occur either with low-topped cells that have
recently developed ahead of the broken line, or with circulations
embedded within the line itself.
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