• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1777

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 22 20:09:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 222009
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222008=20
    PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-222145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1777
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0308 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern OH...western PA...and northern
    WV

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 510...

    Valid 222008Z - 222145Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 510 continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will
    remain possible through the rest of the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms has formed this afternoon
    across eastern OH and northern WV along and just ahead of a cold
    front. The environment downstream of this convection into western PA
    will remain favorable for organized severe storms, with MLCAPE of
    500-1000 J/kg and around 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear present per
    latest mesoanalysis estimates. Scattered damaging winds will
    probably be the main threat with these mostly linear storms as they
    move generally northeastward through the rest of the afternoon.
    There still remains a chance for a couple tornadoes, as 0-1 km SRH
    around 150 m2/s2 is present based on recent VWPs from KPBZ and
    surface winds remain backed to southeasterly across western PA.
    These tornadoes may occur either with low-topped cells that have
    recently developed ahead of the broken line, or with circulations
    embedded within the line itself.

    ..Gleason.. 09/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t8InFra41gwz7jC2iybnlrFrcTb3Dn76wdJhh4a1v_RM6gFJtY4kouH6uosRXuoTo7zGZkfA$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

    LAT...LON 39528042 39988055 40158091 40818128 41288108 41888105
    42197999 41207890 39747948 39508000 39528042=20



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