• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1776

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 22 18:44:40 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 221844
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221844=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-222115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1776
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0144 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021

    Areas affected...portions of central into northern South
    Carolina...western North Carolina...western Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 221844Z - 222115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms
    through the remainder of the afternoon. A WW issuance is not
    anticipated given the isolated, brief nature of the severe threat.

    DISCUSSION...A broad confluence zone, delineating the surface cold
    front/lee trough axis, is progressing across the central/southern
    Appalachians, accompanied primarily by heavier rain bands. However,
    adequate diurnal heating in advance of this confluence band has
    supported surface temperatures reaching near 80 F with 70+ F
    dewpoints, contributing to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the absence of
    appreciable lapse rates (per 18Z mesoanalysis).=20

    With continued surface heating, and modest deep-layer ascent from
    the approaching mid-level trough overspreading the surface
    lee-trough axis, some convective intensification is expected along
    the aforementioned confluence zone. However,
    unidirectional/meridional tropospheric flow suggests that vertical
    shear profiles will be mediocre in terms of supporting severe
    potential. Coupled with less than 5.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates,
    updrafts are not expected to become overly robust, hence the
    unlikelihood of a WW issuance. Nonetheless, one of the stronger=20
    line segments within the confluence band may support a couple strong
    wind gusts this afternoon.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 09/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tq2AbpotAB1xxYtkCQXBFsB_Md74sBaOwzvnf2YYteM7s7xV27SRLXclDxChc192RzH0gptl$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...RLX...CAE...
    GSP...MRX...

    LAT...LON 34728287 37698066 38178016 38117943 37867891 37377855
    36847850 36217856 35427903 34447956 33578005 32978042
    32888089 33188152 34728287=20



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