• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1774

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 21 19:48:01 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 211947
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211947=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-212215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1774
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0247 PM CDT Tue Sep 21 2021

    Areas affected...portions of extreme southeast Arkansas into far
    northeast Louisiana and northwest Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 211947Z - 212215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A damaging gust or two remains possible, particularly with
    the more organized line segments. The overall severe threat appears
    too sparse and brief to warrant a WW issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular storms have congealed into loosely
    organized linear segments over the past couple of hours due to cold
    pool mergers. No observations or reports have been received of
    damaging gusts so far. However, peak heating is underway, supporting
    near 90F surface temperatures and a mixed boundary layer,
    contributing to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. As such, a damaging gust or two
    cannot be ruled out with the more potent water-loaded storm cores.
    Nonetheless, damaging gusts should remain very isolated and brief,
    precluding a WW issuance.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 09/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q-3xziUy_K7c5lWSDgTmMgx8WnOJtijEpxX4sFtpHbmV9iNHBNO2iGoZ29iafg9-jODGkzWb$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 33339280 34059176 34469066 34359005 34148972 33758956
    33168953 32858958 32649025 32519092 32529137 32549188
    32699235 32879275 33339280=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 21 20:01:01 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1632254465-91550-2326
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    ACUS11 KWNS 212000
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212000 COR
    MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-212215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1774
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 21 2021

    Areas affected...portions of extreme southeast Arkansas into far
    northeast Louisiana and northwest Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 212000Z - 212215Z

    CORRECTED FOR WORDING

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A damaging gust or two remains possible, particularly with
    the more organized line segments. The overall severe threat appears
    too sparse and brief to warrant a WW issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular storms have congealed into loosely
    organized linear segments over the past couple of hours due to cold
    pool mergers. Few reports have been received of damaging gusts so
    far. However, peak heating is underway, supporting near 90F surface temperatures and a mixed boundary layer, contributing to 2000+ J/kg
    MLCAPE. As such, a damaging gust or two cannot be ruled out with the
    more potent water-loaded storm cores. Nonetheless, damaging gusts
    should remain very isolated and brief, precluding a WW issuance.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 09/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qqP5wh-53xNvlD5xw6fyrr17IsVmryPkX32ID6w6x8t3UYFlNK9V4kUSvuwh-E2P5dlu1LU-$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 33339280 34059176 34469066 34359005 34148972 33758956
    33168953 32858958 32649025 32519092 32529137 32549188
    32699235 32879275 33339280=20



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    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

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