• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1772

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Sep 20 23:26:08 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 202325
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202325=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-210100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1772
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0625 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

    Areas affected...far eastern KS into western and north-central MO

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 508...

    Valid 202325Z - 210100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 508
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and hail will continue to pose a threat
    across WW 508 the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...A couple of bands of strong to severe thunderstorms
    have developed near the eastward-advancing cold front this evening
    from far eastern KS into western and north-central MO. Convective
    mode has tended to be clusters and line segments, though a couple of
    more discrete supercells also are persisting. One such cell produced
    several severe hail reports in Johnson County KS the past hour or so
    and any more discrete convection will continue to pose a threat for
    severe hail for another couple of hours.=20

    Large-scale ascent is more modest across the region compared to
    further north across IA/MN/WI, but MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg and
    effective shear magnitudes of 30-40 kt will continue to support
    organized structures developing along the cold front through the
    evening. In addition to the hail threat with more discrete cells,
    bowing segments also may produce damaging gusts. The overall severe
    threat should wane by around 03z as boundary-layer inhibition
    increases and a lack of a stronger low level jet precludes more intense/well-organized linear convection from materializing.

    ..Leitman.. 09/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pv1WEVzshFC4xMnD8b4BxJuKopNdBLSl7ZvinfF4-b5k-yE9TFK73A5koGRG_rHK1ENU6Smw$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 39119507 40549381 40539241 39259244 38909253 38269269
    37829355 37649415 37709517 39119507=20



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