• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1770

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Sep 20 20:56:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 202056
    SPC MCD 202055=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1770
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0355 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

    Areas affected...portions of central into eastern Iowa...far
    southeast Minnesota...western into northern Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507...

    Valid 202055Z - 202230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues with Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    507, and should persist through the afternoon. Damaging gusts and
    occasional large hail are expected to remain the primary threats,
    though a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out. A new WW may
    be needed to the northeast of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507.

    DISCUSSION...Temperatures have reached or exceeded 80F across much
    of the warm sector ahead of the ongoing line of storms, south of a
    warm front draped across northern WI, contributing up to 1500 J/kg
    MLCAPE in spots. Storms along/ahead of the eastward advancing cold
    front have obtained predominantly linear structures, posing a threat
    for mainly damaging gusts, though a couple instances of marginally
    severe hail remain possible, especially across northern portions of
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507 given 45+ kts of effective bulk shear
    in place.

    While the tornado threat is expected to remain limited overall, over
    200 m2/s2 of effective SRH has been noted in proximity to the warm
    front by the 20Z mesoanalysis, with the 2024Z ARX VWP showing well
    over 200 m2/s2 SRH within the 0-1 km layer alone. Despite the linear
    storm mode, any segment which can become more northwest-southeast
    aligned (oriented relatively more normal to the 45+ kt effective
    bulk shear vector) would support some potential for a brief tornado
    given adequate buoyancy.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 09/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tfEgAmfTnZL1Wzc-_zGc5NYh0wiDrvpgH7UnrM7DPRoaj1CPKbueyG3H0Wn-nn8ZewZupc43$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40629466 42649403 44469346 45559311 46119259 46489176
    46509074 46318999 45898955 44719025 42379077 40859166
    40619188 40629466=20

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