• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1769

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Sep 20 19:15:33 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 201915
    SPC MCD 201915=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1769
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0215 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

    Areas affected...far northeast Kansas through northern and central

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 201915Z - 202115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop over far northeast
    Kansas by 20Z, likely evolving into a line as they continue east
    through northern Missouri into the evening. Locally strong to severe
    wind gusts will be the primary threat, though a few instances of
    hail may also occur in the stronger storms. A severe thunderstorm
    watch might be needed for this region by 20-21Z.

    DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon a cold front extends from western
    IA through northeast KS near Topeka, then farther southwest near
    Wichita. The downstream warm sector has become moderately unstable
    with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE as surface temperatures climb through the
    80s along with upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints. Deeper forcing and
    stronger winds aloft attending a northern-stream shortwave trough
    will remain north of this region. Nevertheless, forcing for ascent
    within frontal zone should become sufficient to initiate storms over
    northeast KS as the boundary layer continues to destabilize and any
    remaining convective inhibition weakens. Vertical wind profiles with
    30-35 kt effective bulk shear will support multicell storm modes,
    with storms likely to eventually evolve into line segments along the
    front. The stronger storms will become capable of producing strong
    to damaging gusts, especially as they continue east through northern
    MO later this afternoon into the evening.

    ..Dial/Hart.. 09/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uE3sW5_9TceEwbULHvyuIxXuiVuNETiZVxZg05kb-aO_2zPat8i4AmtFqznzztx70QeuErDS$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 37899444 38349489 39159508 39859494 40399440 40539320
    40399249 39749209 38859236 38229286 37889363 37899444=20

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