• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1766

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Sep 17 22:09:33 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 172209
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172208=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-180045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1766
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0508 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

    Areas affected...West-central/Southwest Kansas...Western
    Oklahoma...Eastern Texas Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 172208Z - 180045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat is expected to develop over the
    next few hours from west-central Kansas southward into the eastern
    Texas Panhandle. The threat should remain too isolated for watch
    issuance.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Goodland shows
    thunderstorms developing in northern Kansas to the north of a front
    extending east-northeastward across north-central Kansas. The front
    also extends southward into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.
    Surface dewpoints are currently in the lower 60s F to the east of
    the front where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg
    range by the RAP. Additional convection has developed on the
    southwestern end of the strongest instability just to the south of
    Dodge City. This convection may gradually strengthen early this
    evening as low-level convergence becomes enhanced along and to the
    east of the front. New thunderstorms may also develop over the next
    1 to 2 hours further south in the eastern Texas Panhandle. In
    addition to the instability, RAP forecast soundings early this
    evening show directional shear throughout the low to mid-levels with
    0-6 km shear around 25 kt. This may be enough for marginally severe
    storms capable of hail and strong gusty winds. The threat should
    persist for a few hours this evening but will likely remain too
    marginal for weather watch issuance.

    ..Broyles.. 09/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p6Pyl90jDIM__a7FW8y05jhQWV-tANoHEtp5nDA-nU057cCi6aXQ2SR1f39rGHilVeFw-7ZN$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

    LAT...LON 37420101 38370076 38970018 39179975 39179946 39009898
    38769893 38119945 37619966 36679979 35049975 34800037
    35020082 35470095 36420109 37420101=20



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