• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1764

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Sep 17 01:53:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 170153
    SPC MCD 170153=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1764
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0853 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

    Areas affected...Southern and Eastern Minnesota...Far Northwest

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 504...

    Valid 170153Z - 170400Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 504 continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue for a few
    more hours across WW 504 and WW 505. Although large hail and wind
    damage will be the most probable threats, a tornado still cannot be
    ruled out in parts of eastern and northeastern Minnesota. A new
    weather watch is not anticipated to the east of the ongoing watches.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Minneapolis shows a
    north-to-south oriented cluster of strong to severe storms in
    northeast Minnesota. More widely spaced convection is located across south-central Minnesota. The storms are located along the eastern
    edge of a corridor of moderate instability along which the RAP is
    estimating MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/Kg range. In addition, the
    WSR-88D VWP at Minneapolis has directional shear in the lowest 2 km
    with 50 to 60 kt of west-southwest flow in the mid-levels. This will
    continue to support supercell potential this evening. Supercells
    will be capable of producing isolated large hail and wind damage. A
    tornado threat will continue across parts of eastern and
    northeastern Minnesota where low-level shear is more favorable. The
    storms will continue to move east-northeastward over the next few
    hours, encountering more stable air to the east of the ongoing
    watches. For this reason, any severe threat should become marginal
    late this evening.

    ..Broyles.. 09/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oj5aMlUgUvouuUVIuSp6d0o0dIRpkv6fwC1JthCOAMJEDuKRaTgGvKpxlSGacxXUIlNqstO1$=
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    LAT...LON 48349119 47589216 46069377 44909492 44359543 43999560
    43659535 43639498 43709451 44059363 45559235 47319073
    48029037 48349119=20

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