Mesoscale Discussion 1764
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021
Areas affected...Southern and Eastern Minnesota...Far Northwest
Concerning...Tornado Watch 504...
Valid 170153Z - 170400Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 504 continues.
SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue for a few
more hours across WW 504 and WW 505. Although large hail and wind
damage will be the most probable threats, a tornado still cannot be
ruled out in parts of eastern and northeastern Minnesota. A new
weather watch is not anticipated to the east of the ongoing watches.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Minneapolis shows a
north-to-south oriented cluster of strong to severe storms in
northeast Minnesota. More widely spaced convection is located across south-central Minnesota. The storms are located along the eastern
edge of a corridor of moderate instability along which the RAP is
estimating MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/Kg range. In addition, the
WSR-88D VWP at Minneapolis has directional shear in the lowest 2 km
with 50 to 60 kt of west-southwest flow in the mid-levels. This will
continue to support supercell potential this evening. Supercells
will be capable of producing isolated large hail and wind damage. A
tornado threat will continue across parts of eastern and
northeastern Minnesota where low-level shear is more favorable. The
storms will continue to move east-northeastward over the next few
hours, encountering more stable air to the east of the ongoing
watches. For this reason, any severe threat should become marginal
late this evening.
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at firstname.lastname@example.org and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1631843644-91550-622--