Mesoscale Discussion 1763
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021
Areas affected...Central Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 170057Z - 170300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A growing cluster of storms moving out of southwest
Nebraska will likely persist for the next several hours and will
continue to pose a severe hail/wind threat. A watch may be needed to
address this potential.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms continues to mature as it
moves out of southwest NE and into central portions of the state.
Both severe hail and wind have occurred with this cluster over the
past hour, including a 67 mph wind report at KOGA near Ogallala, NE.
The 00z North Platte sounding captures the downstream environment
ahead of this cluster well and features nearly 2300 J/kg MUCAPE with
minimal inhibition and steep mid-level lapse rates. Although
effective bulk shear was only near 30 knots, increasing flow in the
mid and upper levels over the coming hours may augment bulk shear
values to near 40 knots. Isentropic ascent in the vicinity of the
terminus of the nocturnal jet will maintain this cluster, and the
attendant hail/wind risk, at least for the next 2-4 hours as they
move into central NE. A watch may be needed to address this concern.
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