• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1763

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Sep 17 00:58:26 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 170058
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170057=20
    NEZ000-170300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1763
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0757 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

    Areas affected...Central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 170057Z - 170300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A growing cluster of storms moving out of southwest
    Nebraska will likely persist for the next several hours and will
    continue to pose a severe hail/wind threat. A watch may be needed to
    address this potential.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms continues to mature as it
    moves out of southwest NE and into central portions of the state.
    Both severe hail and wind have occurred with this cluster over the
    past hour, including a 67 mph wind report at KOGA near Ogallala, NE.
    The 00z North Platte sounding captures the downstream environment
    ahead of this cluster well and features nearly 2300 J/kg MUCAPE with
    minimal inhibition and steep mid-level lapse rates. Although
    effective bulk shear was only near 30 knots, increasing flow in the
    mid and upper levels over the coming hours may augment bulk shear
    values to near 40 knots. Isentropic ascent in the vicinity of the
    terminus of the nocturnal jet will maintain this cluster, and the
    attendant hail/wind risk, at least for the next 2-4 hours as they
    move into central NE. A watch may be needed to address this concern.

    ..Moore/Edwards.. 09/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rYVT_apihuOZLWmg5Bq8LiOUiai9z_WnhtcU3KLiPG_MplnRP5NkVUb2QLV-hq57mVNxJApn$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 41060202 41470178 41830023 41949920 41519850 41119853
    40779893 40600019 40570149 40640185 41060202=20



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