• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1761

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 16 23:24:25 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 162324
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162323=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-170100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1761
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0623 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota...Southwest and Central
    Minnesota...Far Northwest Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 162323Z - 170100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop from central
    Minnesota southwestward into far southeastern South Dakota. Large
    hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. Weather watch
    issuance will likely be needed across the region early this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving
    southeastward across west-central Minnesota and southeastern South
    Dakota. A moist airmass is located ahead of the front with surface
    dewpoints generally in the lower to mid 60s F. This is contributing
    to a narrow corridor of moderate instability where the RAP is
    estimating MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. This combined with
    increasing low-level convergence just ahead of the front will
    support continued thunderstorm development this evening. In addition
    to the instability, RAP forecast soundings early this evening across
    southwest Minnesota have veering winds with height in the low levels
    with about 50 kt of west-southwest flow at 500 mb. This is helping
    to create 0-6 km shear near 40 kt, which will likely support severe thunderstorm development over the next few hours as cells gradually
    increase in coverage. Although supercells with large hail will be
    possible, the stronger line segments may also be able to produce
    wind damage as well.

    ..Broyles/Edwards.. 09/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vbGrM6RvfL-8q4XqxsEUZsWBtZfzfTE0gSlLhrj_tJNJfZ_19loJw7gw4K3asfM-Mlp9WDWD$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

    LAT...LON 43189516 42909573 42879646 42909712 43109732 43569737
    44239699 45569611 45939531 45889478 45659442 45059446
    44469479 43189516=20



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