• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1760

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 16 21:47:27 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 162147
    SPC MCD 162146=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1760
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0446 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 162146Z - 162345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may pose a downburst
    wind threat over the next 1-2 hours across northeast Colorado. The
    potential for severe hail and wind may increase as storms move into
    southwest Nebraska this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar and IR satellite imagery show a few robust
    convective towers developing along a surface trough across northeast
    CO. RAP forecast soundings from this region, as well as mesoanalysis
    and GOES CAPE estimates, suggest that MLCAPE is meager (around
    250-500 J/kg). However, this instability is situated atop a deep,
    well-mixed boundary layer with low-level lapse rates approaching 10
    C/km. Nearly 50 F dewpoint depressions are noted in recent surface
    obs in the vicinity of the developing convection, which supports
    recent analyses. This environment will support the potential for
    strong to severe downbursts as storms continue to mature across
    northeast CO over the next 1-2 hours.

    This activity will likely propagate into southwest NE into the
    evening hours where higher quality boundary-layer moisture and
    stronger effective shear may support a general intensification trend
    with an attendant increase in severe wind/hail potential. Additional
    convection is possible along the southward-moving cold front later
    this evening/tonight, which may pose a similar wind/hail threat. In
    general, confidence in the longevity and coverage of these storms is
    low and a watch is not currently anticipated. However, trends will
    continue to be monitored.

    ..Moore/Edwards.. 09/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tPeQG5ynnIT3p3Q7PiRilohrVIf0WKQ9lnZ8ge5pVlEd_t9dwBnYMsrRyj8hq5XaasD2P7_0$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40490327 41160281 41680222 41880158 41590116 41280091
    40590083 40150119 39820180 39570237 39380300 39300343
    39320373 39570378 40490327=20

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