• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1758

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 16 00:11:52 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 160011
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160011=20 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-160215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1758
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0711 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania...Southeast New
    York...Southern New England

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 503...

    Valid 160011Z - 160215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 503
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage threat will likely continue for a
    few more hours across parts of WW 503. The threat should become
    increasingly marginal with time. Issuance of a new weather watch
    appears very unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery near Philadelphia shows a
    broken line of strong thunderstorms located from west-central
    Maryland to eastern Pennsylvania. The line is located ahead of a
    cold front in a moist airmass with surface dewpoints generally from
    65 to 70 F. This was contributing to moderate instability with the
    RAP showing MLCAPE across the watch generally in the 1000 to 1500
    J/kg range. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear in
    the 30 to 40 kt range with west to southwest flow in the low to
    mid-levels. This combined with the instability will continue to
    support short line segments capable of isolated wind damage. As
    instability drops and outflow spreads across the region this
    evening, the wind-damage threat should become increasingly isolated
    and marginal.

    ..Broyles.. 09/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sPYKPWdeBns8MS4NTZ2EjHOctfvzXsW0UchQldyCToVDtn0ZSIij6C5b2kDVMTxx3DI__0bw$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 39687606 39737745 40007742 40267686 40127670 40247659
    40547664 40417639 40557617 40527603 40747581 40937601
    41177543 41107501 41327477 41437460 41607437 41617400
    42037394 41987353 42057350 41997304 42707290 42747218
    42737186 42547153 42037150 41977212 41737216 41577235
    41667256 41567275 41577292 41617296 41507324 41497335
    41627351 41367353 41307392 41177414 41157418 41207430
    40947468 40557525 40347564 40137592 40047591 39687606=20



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