• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1756

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 15 19:04:24 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 151904
    SPC MCD 151904=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1756
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0204 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021

    Areas affected...portions of northern NJ...southern NY...CT...and MA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 151904Z - 152100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential is increasing across parts
    of far northern NJ/southern NY into MA. A new severe thunderstorm
    watch may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...A narrow corridor of increasing severe potential exists
    from far northern NJ into MA ahead of ongoing strong/severe
    convection further to the north/northwest. This corridor has
    experienced strong heating today, with temperatures mostly in the
    mid to upper 80s amid 65-70 F dewpoints, yielding MLCAPE values
    around 1500-2000 J/kg. Visible satellite shows a broad area of
    agitated CU, with stronger vertical development across parts of
    southern NY/northern NJ as well as near the MA/VT/NH border.
    Stronger ascent will remain north of the area, so it is unclear if
    any storms will develop ahead of the slowly east/northeastward
    moving bands of convection further to the northwest. However, a southeastward-advancing outflow boundary is noted from Delaware to
    Rensselaer Counties in southeast NY and may provide enough focus for
    additional development across/moving into the MCD area. Vertical
    shear does decrease with southward extent across New England, but
    effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kts is more than sufficient
    to maintain organized cells/clusters in a moderately unstable
    airmass. As such, a severe threat could spread south of WW 501 and
    WW 502 in the next couple of hours and a new watch may be needed.

    ..Leitman/Thompson.. 09/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oihyGWJEz05BtCFFe0zNISfKWjmUv0NA0OAqCQrDUMcXx5_UO8xWkN09mLkO8yaYXIgGS1tD$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 42177357 42597287 42797205 42817080 42697055 42527055
    42097149 41477303 40777453 40807474 40897494 41407473

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