• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1755

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 15 17:27:20 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 151727
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151726=20
    FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-152000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1755
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1226 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021

    Areas affected...Southern MS...Southern AL...Western FL Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 151726Z - 152000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated transient supercells may affect of the Gulf Coast
    region from Southern MS into the western FL Panhandle this
    afternoon, posing a risk of waterspouts and a tornado or two. A
    watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...The remnant low of Nicholas is currently near Baton
    Rouge, with a well-defined surface boundary extending eastward along
    the MS/AL coast to off the coast of the FL Panhandle. Backed
    low-level winds in vicinity of this boundary, coupled with
    moderately strong southerly winds aloft, are resulting in favorable
    shear profiles for rotating storms. VAD profiles at MOB/EVX sample
    this environment reasonably well, with 0-3km SRH of around 150
    m2/s2. A few of the cells near Mobile Bay have recently shown signs
    of weak rotation. This trend will likely continue through the
    afternoon as daytime heating slowly destabilizes the air mass and
    the boundary lifts slowly northward toward the FL coast. Widespread precipitation is expected to limit destabilization very far inland,
    with the primary risk remaining offshore and in the coastal
    counties. Current indications are that a watch is unlikely due to
    the limited areal coverage and marginal nature of risk.

    ..Hart/Thompson.. 09/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rZO0zPTxckbBgmwaCWC4DkdCG-HdDGCyodtKWjSgpiXpQfavlBywH4Y4vAq5ROeYmPdVM6u7$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 30068826 30218920 30318989 30548995 30858976 30988895
    30938754 30678638 30378562 29708489 29358502 29048546
    29238609 29858744 30068826=20



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