• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1754

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 15 16:00:17 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 151600
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151559=20
    MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-151800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1754
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1059 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021

    Areas affected...portions of MA...NH and ME

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 151559Z - 151800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity
    through the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and some hail will be the
    main hazards. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by
    18z.

    DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing ahead of a cold front near the
    Canadian border at midday. Stronger heating across southern New
    England to the south/west of a surface warm front has allowed for
    more rapid destabilization compared to much of ME, which remains
    under heavy stratus. As the upper trough shifts northeast through
    the afternoon, and the cold front slowly advances east/southeast,
    the warm front will lift northeast across ME. This will allow
    surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to near 70 F to overspread much
    of New England, and MLCAPE is forecast to increase to around
    500-1500 J/kg by mid-afternoon.=20

    Strong vertical shear is already in place over the region, with
    effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt evident in regional
    VWP data. Deep-layer southwesterly flow parallel to the surface
    front will support mainly lines/bowing segments with damaging wind
    gusts being the main hazard expected through this evening. However,
    southerly near-surface winds will contribute to somewhat enlarged
    low-level hodographs. Rich boundary-layer moisture also will support
    stronger 0-3 km instability from southern portions of VT/NH into far
    southern ME/northern MA. A tornado or two could occur across this
    area, especially if any more discrete cellular activity can persist.

    ..Leitman/Thompson.. 09/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p668u6KgbSkJWIFF3XcfwsYxRfEhH-J4jcKLEtLWuae_wN6cCvsFBw74Sf7I-mne7O4djpBH$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

    LAT...LON 42537182 42647231 42877251 43307247 43867242 44407217
    44947145 45716981 46046896 46126848 45836803 45546789
    45026803 44696825 43497016 42537182=20



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