• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1753

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 15 14:33:49 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 151433
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151433=20
    NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-151700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1753
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0933 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021

    Areas affected...portions of PA...NY and VT

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 151433Z - 151700Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity
    through early afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard
    with this activity and a watch will likely be needed by 16z-17z.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are already
    developing late this morning within the pre-frontal warm sector
    across parts of PA/NY. This initial activity is likely a bit
    elevated and within a strong shear/weak instability environment and
    not likely to produce severe wind gusts initially. However, stronger
    heating is occurring ahead of this activity across central/eastern
    NY/PA. As a result, low-level inhibition will rapidly erode, and
    surface dewpoints around 65-70 F will aid in MLCAPE of 1000-2000
    J/kg by early afternoon. Effective shear magnitudes around 35-50 kt
    are already in place across the region per 12z RAOBs and 14z
    mesoanalysis data. Low-level low is forecast to veer with time, and
    long, relatively straight hodographs are forecast. This will support
    organized clusters and line/bowing segments in bands along/ahead of
    the cold front. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard as midlevel
    lapse rates will remain modest (around 6-6.5 C/km). Midlevel lapse
    rates will improve slightly toward eastern NY and New England (6.5-7
    C/km) and any persistent, discrete activity could produce some hail
    across with eastward extent.

    ..Leitman/Thompson.. 09/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rcnoLtwga7RZoRyfMQeKFIYp8ktORp7VWLXUe5s9KzB_V7nXdloQxPj2_7o5UWahfgPDZQJb$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
    PBZ...

    LAT...LON 40987893 42317680 43347524 44637294 44587246 44267215
    43507235 42477302 41247418 40177628 39867759 39827864
    40037915 40357934 40987893=20



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