• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1752

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 15 09:50:13 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 150950
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150949=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-151145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1752
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0449 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021

    Areas affected...southeast LA...coastal MS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 150949Z - 151145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Transient/weak mesocyclones embedded within a rain shield
    will potentially be capable of a tornado risk for the next few
    hours.

    DISCUSSION...KLIX radar imagery over the past couple of hours has
    shown an increase in the number and intensity of low-level
    mesocyclones over southeast LA and adjacent coastal waters south of
    the MS coast. KLIX VAD data shows a supportive hodograph for
    low-level rotation and surface observations and RAP forecast
    soundings indicate a very moist/weakly buoyant environment. As
    such, transient supercell structure will probably continue in the
    short term and potentially pose a weak/short-lived tornado threat
    with any more persistent/intense circulations. The overall
    magnitude and isolated character of the tornado risk will likely
    preclude a tornado watch issuance.

    ..Smith/Guyer.. 09/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vIM3EFUsO-5Av4j2ijolj2ZShNOScf7ZLxyyMl9EcJ-OLnPMKJfU_CyJaZHbgQdIXXaqS_XR$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

    LAT...LON 29938996 30308981 30618921 30518837 30228825 29638881
    29638945 29938996=20



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