Mesoscale Discussion 1749
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021
Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Colorado
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499...
Valid 142330Z - 150100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499
SUMMARY...The primary potential severe hazard may transition to
strong surface gusts with a developing cluster of storms as it
spreads across and south-southeast of the La Junta vicinity through
7-8 PM MDT.
DISCUSSION...Earlier isolated supercell development initiating near
and southeast of Colorado Springs has been followed by additional
convective development and upscale growth, aided by moist upslope
flow across the sloping terrain north of the Arkansas River into the
vicinity of the Palmer Divide. Although mixed-layer CAPE appears
generally modest to weak, shear beneath moderate west-northwesterly
mid-level flow, coupled with steep low-level lapse rates, appears
sufficient to contribute to further convective organization. This
may be accompanied by increasing potential to produce strong surface
gusts as the convective system propagates across and south-southeast
of the La Junta vicinity through 7-8 PM MDT.
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