• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1749

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 14 23:31:03 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 142331
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142330=20
    COZ000-150100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1749
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0630 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Colorado

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499...

    Valid 142330Z - 150100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The primary potential severe hazard may transition to
    strong surface gusts with a developing cluster of storms as it
    spreads across and south-southeast of the La Junta vicinity through
    7-8 PM MDT.

    DISCUSSION...Earlier isolated supercell development initiating near
    and southeast of Colorado Springs has been followed by additional
    convective development and upscale growth, aided by moist upslope
    flow across the sloping terrain north of the Arkansas River into the
    vicinity of the Palmer Divide. Although mixed-layer CAPE appears
    generally modest to weak, shear beneath moderate west-northwesterly
    mid-level flow, coupled with steep low-level lapse rates, appears
    sufficient to contribute to further convective organization. This
    may be accompanied by increasing potential to produce strong surface
    gusts as the convective system propagates across and south-southeast
    of the La Junta vicinity through 7-8 PM MDT.

    ..Kerr.. 09/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uG5sQNE1KSmfgEyd5hfmSrKWJhIDLn7x69uIx-UXch-F0SqVGkZMz4Fjcxv2Tkp72fgWnV8U$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PUB...

    LAT...LON 38370306 37880259 37400303 37650361 38170380 38170344
    38370306=20



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