• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1748

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 14 22:05:05 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 142205
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142204=20
    MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-142330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1748
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0504 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern Michigan...northern Indiana...and far
    northwest Ohio

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498...

    Valid 142204Z - 142330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and damaging-wind threat will
    continue into the evening.

    DISCUSSION...Storm coverage has been somewhat sparse ahead of the
    cold front so far with only occasional stronger cores. This is
    probably a result of weak forcing from a weak confluence zone with
    the upper forcing farther north in Canada and the surface front
    farther west. However, the environment still remains quite favorable
    ahead of these storms with MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. In addition, the KDTX VWP shows flow in excess of 40
    knots below 1km. Therefore, damaging winds will remain a threat with
    any stronger storms which can bring some of this stronger flow to
    the surface. The best damaging-wind threat may materialize from the
    storm cluster developing in Kalamazoo, Calhoun, St. Joseph, and
    Branch counties in southern Michigan given current convective trends
    and a favorable downstream environment.

    ..Bentley.. 09/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pc0sn6TWPhZTFw3AWWyduhn5NjWkgsfYRH2FIay0U0vdfNDCuP0iNM8K6g69DvuDGOZjJoV3$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

    LAT...LON 40558723 41418646 42438522 42988449 43528350 43818249
    43398180 42338251 40448509 40558723=20



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