Mesoscale Discussion 1747
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021
Areas affected...parts of southern KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 142040Z - 142215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated storms capable of large hail are possible this
afternoon into this evening. A severe thunderstorm watch may be
needed in the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...An expanding/deepening CU field in the vicinity of a southward-sagging cold front has been noted over
southwest/south-central KS over the past hour or two. Strong heating
and dewpoints in the low 60s amid steep midlevel lapse rates is
resulting in 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Large-scale forcing for ascent
remains weak over the region, but weak convergence along the surface
boundary should be sufficient for a few storms to develop over the
next few hours. This area is on the southern fringes of stronger
shear, with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Small, but
curved low-level hodographs, becoming straight/elongated above 3 km,
suggest splitting supercells producing large hail are possible.
Convective trends will be monitored and a watch may be needed in the
next couple of hours.
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at firstname.lastname@example.org and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1631652038-98392-1717--