• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1747

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 14 20:40:36 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 142040
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142040=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-142215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1747
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0340 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

    Areas affected...parts of southern KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 142040Z - 142215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated storms capable of large hail are possible this
    afternoon into this evening. A severe thunderstorm watch may be
    needed in the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...An expanding/deepening CU field in the vicinity of a southward-sagging cold front has been noted over
    southwest/south-central KS over the past hour or two. Strong heating
    and dewpoints in the low 60s amid steep midlevel lapse rates is
    resulting in 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Large-scale forcing for ascent
    remains weak over the region, but weak convergence along the surface
    boundary should be sufficient for a few storms to develop over the
    next few hours. This area is on the southern fringes of stronger
    shear, with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Small, but
    curved low-level hodographs, becoming straight/elongated above 3 km,
    suggest splitting supercells producing large hail are possible.
    Convective trends will be monitored and a watch may be needed in the
    next couple of hours.

    ..Leitman/Thompson.. 09/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ugJeO8dAlklNh3XCWV6k0p9mt-8peYqSc1C6nkavyOmFdtCG0ju0jBeSv8hprpVoMXbi38Uw$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...

    LAT...LON 38070194 38240005 38279823 38029704 37669677 37429672
    37059687 36899715 36929859 36920083 36910182 37090223
    37900218 38070194=20



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