• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1746

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 14 20:19:06 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 142018
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142018=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-142215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1746
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0318 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

    Areas affected...Central Missouri into Central Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 142018Z - 142215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storm coverage will increase along the cold front into
    early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with
    large hail being more isolated. A watch is not expected, though
    trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating along the cold front has
    produced a deepening field of cumulus and isolated thunderstorms in
    central Missouri into central Illinois. Some additional, modest
    mid-level ascent, primarily focused in Illinois, could promote
    additional development later this afternoon. Deep-layer shear in the
    warm sector is weak and should generally remain near 25 kts. The
    strongest storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps
    isolated large hail. Should storms congeal, a more organized
    damaging wind threat would develop. Lack of greater shear and
    mid-level forcing will likely keep the threat marginal. Trends will
    be monitored, but no watch is expected this afternoon.

    ..Wendt/Thompson.. 09/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!olkq1zqHox-VjoF7Xe0Eu1x5fNA7kB2UStu10EmwFQA5U2ydpElzBIzJhOIpM6Z_odX7v2eQ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

    LAT...LON 40798886 41308766 40858724 40548712 39408773 38818877
    37989086 37879228 37329423 37569453 38119445 38989215
    39499079 40798886=20



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