• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1745

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 14 19:09:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 141908
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141908=20
    COZ000-142115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1745
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0208 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

    Areas affected...eastern CO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 141908Z - 142115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms capable of large hail are possible
    this afternoon. Convective trends are being monitored for possible
    watch issuance in the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing over higher terrain west of
    I-25 this afternoon as instability increases amid strong heating. Boundary-layer moisture remains poor, with surface dewpoints
    generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. As a result, convection may
    struggle to persist as storms move eastward off of higher terrain,
    with additional storms possibly developing in weak low level
    confluence/upslope flow near the Palmer Divide over the next few
    hours. Despite poor low-level moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates
    around 7.5-8 C/km will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Low and
    midlevel flow also is rather weak, but easterly winds below 700 mb
    veering to northwesterly is contributing to around 30-40 kt
    effective shear magnitudes. This should support at least isolated,
    briefly organized cells this afternoon/evening. Long, straight
    forecast hodographs indicate splitting cells capable of large hail
    will be the main hazard this afternoon/early evening.

    ..Leitman/Thompson.. 09/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oRUkimRGp0UIJi9pZS0kSH7y4tqz5iyWafsnSREaXQVzHo2WYBg4K8J1TBBdz49xqg4kh9ID$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 37510322 37530398 37760453 38640501 39140494 39480456
    39700389 39650324 39470273 39080231 38920220 38380206
    37710236 37510322=20



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