Mesoscale Discussion 1744
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021
Areas affected...Southern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 141812Z - 142015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storm coverage will likely begin to increase in the next
1-2 hours across parts of central/southern Lower Michigan into
northern Indiana. Damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail will
be possible. A watch is possible by 3-4 PM EDT.
DISCUSSION...Showers and isolated, weak thunderstorms have begun to
develop ahead of the cold front in central/southern Lower Michigan.
Given the uncapped boundary layer, greater convective activity is
expected to occur within the next 1-2 hours as the front continues
to push southeast and mid-level ascent continues to increase across
the Upper Midwest. The main shortwave trough continues to move
northeast into Canada. The strongest shear is expected to exist in
relative close proximity to the front this afternoon. MLCAPE already
around 2000 J/kg will support scattered organized storms/line
segments capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail.
Current visible satellite trends and model guidance would suggest
that the primary severe threat will initiate out of the deepening
cumulus line near and east of Grand Rapids. A watch is possible by
3-4 PM EDT.
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at firstname.lastname@example.org and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1631643158-98392-1653--