• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1744

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 14 18:12:31 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 141812
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141812=20
    MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-142015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1744
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0112 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

    Areas affected...Southern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 141812Z - 142015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storm coverage will likely begin to increase in the next
    1-2 hours across parts of central/southern Lower Michigan into
    northern Indiana. Damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail will
    be possible. A watch is possible by 3-4 PM EDT.

    DISCUSSION...Showers and isolated, weak thunderstorms have begun to
    develop ahead of the cold front in central/southern Lower Michigan.
    Given the uncapped boundary layer, greater convective activity is
    expected to occur within the next 1-2 hours as the front continues
    to push southeast and mid-level ascent continues to increase across
    the Upper Midwest. The main shortwave trough continues to move
    northeast into Canada. The strongest shear is expected to exist in
    relative close proximity to the front this afternoon. MLCAPE already
    around 2000 J/kg will support scattered organized storms/line
    segments capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail.
    Current visible satellite trends and model guidance would suggest
    that the primary severe threat will initiate out of the deepening
    cumulus line near and east of Grand Rapids. A watch is possible by
    3-4 PM EDT.

    ..Wendt/Thompson.. 09/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qLjNC2k_wDC3MrGJX4ulvkNNFyfD15bc4qXtBNibmDe28FzugpG1AwBUaH7sJMFmb778n4pl$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

    LAT...LON 43858442 44038343 43568287 42508324 41618411 40788530
    40848629 41188692 41618696 42408593 43318489 43858442=20



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